Billy Hume, who returned to his native Outer Banks for the swell.īack in Jersey, on Friday afternoon, Brian Farias, of Farias Surf and Sport joined team rider, Chris Kretzer for a Long Beach Island go out. 'It was such a good finale for the summer,' said Billy Hume, who returned to his native Outer Banks for the swell, 'Everyone is packing up to leave and we're just getting started.'

Locals and swell chasers were getting shacked at will with hoots coming from water and land in a constant stream.' 'The winds went straight offshore for two days and I witnessed some of the best surf the East Coast has to offer. 'The Outer Banks turned on Friday afternoon after Ernesto took leave,' explained North Carolina photog Kenny Onufrock. Therefore, the much-deserved swell, after a lackluster August, makes tropical juice taste even sweeter. Consequently, the last months have been a grueling stretch of servicing visitors: painting their homes, servicing their boats, serving their dinners, selling them art, mixing their drinks, and teaching their kids to surf, sometimes several in the same day. Most of us at the coast depend on Pennsylvania tourists for our livelihood. So, as surfers watched mountains of surf bombarding the beaches, they knew that the storm wasn't off Hatteras or Bermuda, but was backpacking up the Appalachian Mountains, of good ol' Pennsyltucky. Pennsylvania, of all places.Īlthough it was an inland track up the Mid-Atlantic, the pressure gradient between the remnants of Ernesto and strong high pressure over Canada created enough fetch offshore for 15 to 20-foot seas. Tropical Storm Ernesto, which arced out of the Caribbean, puffed a few Cubans, crossed over Florida (leaving the surf marginal at best), and smashed into the Carolinas, took his final, rainy, path northward through. It is found that moist conditions at 850 hPa, vertical wind shear, the strength of the 850 hPa pre existing wave, and upper-level warming play notable roles in Ernesto’s genesis.For guys like Sam Hammer, nothing is better than Home Sweet Home during Hurricane Season. Specifically, ROC curves, composite figures for genesis and nongenesis cases, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests are applied to characterize the relationship between important environmental parameters near the beginning of the simulation and genesis likelihood 15-18 h later. This set of 140 ensemble members is employed to study the precursors of Hurricane Ernesto’s genesis by contrasting the genesis and nongenesis cases. Basic evaluation shows that high-resolution ensemble forecasts are able to predict well-developed TCs, whereas the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) fails to do so. With an advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, high-resolution ensemble forecasts (at 5 km horizontal resolution) are conducted in various configurations using a bred vector method to form a set of 140 ensemble members for predicting Hurricane Ernesto’s genesis. This study examines a new method to evaluate the precursors of TC genesis using high-resolution ensemble forecasts and relative operating characteristic (ROC) diagrams.

Identifying the environmental conditions that control tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is a challenging problem.

Ernesto hurricane track